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Temporal and statistical insights into multivariate time series forecasting of corn outlet moisture in industrial continuous-flow drying systems

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Temporal and statistical insights into multivariate time series forecasting of corn outlet moisture in industrial continuous-flow drying systems

Statistical analysis and deep learning for outlet moisture prediction in industrial continuous-flow drying systems.

Abstract. Corn drying is a critical post-harvest process to ensure product quality and compliance with moisture standards. Traditional optimization approaches often overlook dynamic interactions between operational parameters and environmental factors in industrial continuous flow drying systems.

This study integrates statistical analysis and deep learning to predict outlet moisture content, leveraging a dataset of 3826 observations from an operational dryer. The effects of inlet moisture, target air temperature, and material discharge interval on thermal behavior of the system were evaluated through linear regression and t-test, which provided interpretable insights into process dependencies.

Three neural network architectures—LSTM, GRU, and TCN—were benchmarked for multivariate time-series forecasting of outlet corn moisture, with hyperparameters optimized using grid search. Results demonstrated GRU’s superior performance in the context of absolute deviations, achieving the lowest mean absolute error (MAE = 0.304%) and competitive mean squared error (MSE = 0.304%), compared to LSTM and TCN. The hybrid methodology bridges statistical insights for interpretability with deep learning’s dynamic predictive capabilities, offering a scalable framework for real-time process optimization.